Limitations of the " Yemen Model " to Counterterrorism

Limitations of the " Yemen Model " to Counterterrorism (MES Insights v5i5 September 2014)

by Adam C. Seitz

On 10 September 2014, U.S. President Barak Obama addressed the nation to lay out his administration’s strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant].” To this end President Obama proposed a counterterrorism strategy that relied on a “systematic campaign of airstrikes” and an “increase in support to forces fighting these terrorists on the ground.” Comparing his strategy for ISIL to counterterrorism campaigns in Yemen and Somalia President Obama stated that, “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

President Obama’s use of Yemen and Somalia as models for a strategy against ISIL has once again reignited the debate on the overall effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism strategy in both cases. In the case of the “Yemen Model,” a strategy, which has relied upon a combination of airstrikes and support for local forces, has thus far fallen short of the ultimate objective of destroying al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its local affiliate Ansar al-Sharia (AAS). Indeed, most intelligence and think-tank estimates point to an increase in the number of attacks and the size of AQAP in recent years. This is not to say that U.S. counterterrorism strategy has been completely ineffective, but rather that U.S. efforts have been limited by realities on the ground, especially those contributing to a lack of reliable and effective local partners. Understanding how the political and security environment in Yemen have limited U.S. counterterrorism efforts against AQAP may be useful in managing expectations as the U.S. seeks to duplicate the successes of the “Yemen Model” in Iraq and Syria.............(Read on)..........

Ties That Bind and Divide: The ‘Arab Spring’ and Yemeni Civil-Military Relations

"Ties That Bind and Divide: The ‘Arab Spring’ and Yemeni Civil-Military Relations" in Why Yemen Matters: A Society in Transition (Saqi Books 2014)

by Adam C. Seitz

Chapter in edited volume Why Yemen Matters: A Society in Transition (Saqi Books, 2014) edited by Helen Lackner.

In November 2011, an agreement brokered by the GCC brought an end to Yemen’s tumultuous uprising. The National Dialogue Conference has opened a window of opportunity for change, bringing Yemen’s main political forces together with groups that were politically marginalized. Yet, the risk of collapse is serious, and if Yemen is to remain a viable state, it must address numerous political, social and economic challenges.

In this invaluable volume, experts with extensive Yemen experience provide innovative analysis of the country’s major crises: centralized governance, the role of the military, ethnic conflict, separatism, Islamism, foreign intervention, water scarcity and economic development.

This is essential reading for academics, journalists, development workers, diplomats, politicians and students alike.

Read or download (PDF) chapter at:
https://marines.academia.edu/AdamCSeitz

Book and ebook available for purchase at:
http://www.saqibooks.co.uk/book/yemen-matters/
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Yemen-Matters-Society-Transition/dp/0863567770

REVIEWS

‘A rich, diverse and rewarding account of the multiple security dilemmas now facing Yemen’ Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 

‘Timely and important … An excellent record … [the contributors’] interviews with Yemenis make a welcome addition to the events, facts and figures that form the basis of the papers.’ Bulletin of the British Foundation for the Study of Arabia

‘An up to date and wide-ranging guide to what is arguably the Arab world’s least known and most misunderstood state … brings together an impressive range of experts on the country’ Michael Willis, Director of the Middle East Centre, Oxford University

‘Thoughtful and well-researched, Why Yemen Matters unearths a wealth of information about contemporary Yemeni society.’ Baghat Korany, Professor of International Relations, American University in Cairo

‘Essential reading … The authors shed light on the context of the Yemeni uprising in a way that helps us understand the outlines of Yemen’s future.’ Charles Schmitz, President of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies

‘A remarkable book in terms of its comprehensiveness, accessibility and ethical approach … a must-read for those wanting to go beyond the headlines' Jordan Times 

Building Yemen's Maritime Security Capacity

Building Yemen's Maritime Security Capacity (MES Insights v5i2 April 2014)

by Adam C Seitz

Over the past decade smuggling across the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb has risen steadily. The illegal trafficking of weapons, drugs, and people continues to fuel sectarian and political violence, threatening Yemen's fragile political transition. At the same time, with a coastline stretching almost 2,000 km along some of the world most strategic waterways, Yemen's continued internal instability and insecurity perpetuates international concerns that Yemen may become a regional hub for transnational smuggling, piracy, and terrorism, posing a significant threat to the free flow of international trade and international security. As such, building the capacity of Yemen's maritime security forces should be a top priority, not only for the Yemeni government but for the international community as a whole.....(Read on).....

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2014

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2014 (Rowman & Littlefield)

by Adam C. Seitz

The American Foreign Policy Council’s World Almanac of Islamism is a comprehensive resource designed to track the rise or decline of radical Islam on a national, regional and global level. This database focuses on the nature of the contemporary Islamist threat around the world, and on the current activities of radical Islamist movements worldwide.

From Western Europe to Asia, from the Middle East to the Horn of Africa, societies are finding themselves under growing assault from radical Islamist forces. In some countries, such as Spain and France, the challenge posed by radical Islam is still limited in scope and embryonic in nature. But in others, including Somalia and Pakistan, it poses a mortal danger to the future of the existing state. The World Almanac of Islamism is the first comprehensive reference work to detail the global reach of Islamism across six continents. Each country study, written by leading subject-matter experts, examines the full scope of the Islamist phenomenon, from the activities of radical Islamist groups to the role of Islamist actors and ideas in society to the response—or complicity—of the local government. An additional series of “movement” studies explores the global reach, ideology, and capabilities of the world’s most powerful transnational Islamist movements. Finally, Almanac includes regional summaries and a global overview designed to provide context and strategic insights into current and emerging trends relating to Islamism the world over. 

Features of the new edition include: 

- Three new country studies (Nigeria, Brazil, Tanzania) 

- Two new movement studies (the Gulen movement and Boko Haram) 

- Updates to all original chapters 

- Consolidation of trends/analyses into one “Global Overview” 

Online resource available at: http://almanac.afpc.org/

Book and ebook available for purchase at:

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442231436/The-World-Almanac-of-Islamism-2014#

https://www.amazon.com/World-Almanac-Islamism-2014/dp/1442231432/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1530114735&sr=1-1

In Yemen, “If Not Drones, Then What?”

In Yemen, “If Not Drones, Then What?” (MES Insights v4i6 December 2013)

by Adam C. Seitz

The use of unmanned drones for the targeted killing of suspected terrorists remains a hotly debated topic among academics, human rights groups, and policymakers alike. Drone strikes following the December 4th 2013 attack on the Yemeni Defense Ministry have reinvigorated the debate, especially as the Yemeni government’s security committee and local officials appear divided on the details of the December 12th drone strike. Much of the debate continues to revolve around the legality of extrajudicial targeted killings and the associated collateral damage, including civilian causalities, rising anti-Americanism and the undercutting of Yemen’s political transition. Such arguments, however, miss the mark when it comes to the overall effectiveness of drones when compared to the alternatives, and fail to put forth a convincing answer to the question: “If not drones, then what?” The reality in a case like Yemen, at least in the near-to-medium term, is that no viable alternative options exist for combating Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its affiliates, especially given the post-2011 political and security environment.........(Read on)............

Military Restructuring and Yemen’s Stalled Transition

Military Restructuring and Yemen’s Stalled Transition (MES Insights v3i6 November 2012)

by Adam C. Seitz

One year ago, on November 23, 2011, President Ali Abdullah Saleh signed the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Initiative, ending his 33-year presidency and transferring power to then-Vice President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi as the first step in Yemen’s transition. Nearly one year after Saleh signed the GCC Initiative, the preparatory committee for national dialogue announced that Yemen’s Conference for National Dialogue had been pushed back to early 2013. The Dialogue is an essential element of the Initiative aimed at unifying a deeply divided country and laying the foundation for the drafting of a new constitution. The November announcement marked the latest delay since the April 2012 date for National Dialogue was first announced, highlighting the challenges Yemen still faces moving forward with implementing the GCC Initiative. One barrier that continues to stand in the way of National Dialogue, and further implementation of the Initiative as a whole, is the restructuring of the armed forces. Although the restructuring of the Yemeni armed forces is stipulated as a part of the first phase of the GCC Initiative, ambiguity within the document has left room for Saleh’s relatives to maintain their posts in the military in post-Saleh Yemen............(Read on)..........

Orienting Our Sights on the Future: Opportunities and Challenges of the Arab Revolts

Orienting Our Sights on the Future: Opportunities and Challenges of the Arab Revolts (MES Monographs No. 3 August 2012)

edited by Amin Tarzi and Adam C. Seitz

As part of its mission to broaden U.S. Marine Corps access to information and analysis through publishing, Middle East Studies at Marine Corps University (MES) has established different mechanisms to disseminate relevant publications, including a Monograph Series. The aim of the MES Monograph Series is to publish original research papers on a wide variety of subjects pertaining to the greater Middle East, to include the countries of the Arab world, Israel, Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. The focus of the Monograph Series is on timely subjects with strategic relevance to current and future concerns of the U.S. Professional Military Education community.

The third issue of the Monograph Series brings together five short pieces representing some of the lectures delivered as part of Academic Year 2011-2012 MES Lecture Series, “Orienting Our Sights on the Future: Opportunities and Challenges of the Arab Revolts.”............(Read on)..........

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2011

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2011 (Rowman & Littlefield)

by Adam C Seitz

The American Foreign Policy Council’s World Almanac of Islamism is a comprehensive resource designed to track the rise or decline of radical Islam on a national, regional and global level. This database focuses on the nature of the contemporary Islamist threat around the world, and on the current activities of radical Islamist movements worldwide.

From Western Europe to Asia, from the Middle East to the Horn of Africa, societies are finding themselves under growing assault from radical Islamist forces. In some countries, such as Spain and France, the challenge posed by radical Islam is still limited in scope and embryonic in nature. But in others, including Somalia and Pakistan, it poses a mortal danger to the future of the existing state. The World Almanac of Islamism is the first comprehensive reference work to detail the global reach of Islamism across six continents. Each country study, written by leading subject-matter experts, examines the full scope of the Islamist phenomenon, from the activities of radical Islamist groups to the role of Islamist actors and ideas in society to the response – or complicity – of the local government. An additional series of “movement” studies explores the global reach, ideology, and capabilities of the world’s most powerful transnational Islamist movements. Finally, Almanac includes regional summaries and a global overview designed to provide context and strategic insights into current and emerging trends relating to Islamism the world over. 

This collection makes a major contribution toward properly defining the Islamist threat and paving the way for the implementation of more effective strategies to counter the rise of radical Islamism by the United States and its allies. It provides policymakers, the news media, scholars, and students with a more comprehensive understanding of the threat we now confront from Islamic extremism. Additionally, the full Almanac is available electronically in database form. 

Online resource available at: http://almanac.afpc.org/

Book and ebook available for purchase at:

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442207134/The-World-Almanac-of-Islamism-2011

https://www.amazon.com/World-Almanac-Islamism-2011/dp/1442207132/ref=sr_1_4?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1530114735&sr=1-4

IRAN'S CONTINUING CHALLENGE IN A TIME OF ARAB TURMOIL

IRAN'S CONTINUING CHALLENGE IN A TIME OF ARAB TURMOIL in The Montreal Review (May 2011)

by Adam C. Seitz and Anthony H. Cordesman

The Islamic Republic of Iran presents a wide range of challenges in a region that is already plagued by insecurity and conflict. As long-standing regimes are threatened by the wave of anti-government protests rolling across the Middle East, Tehran continues to advance its policies intended to expand its influence throughout the region in spite of its own internal challenges and power struggles within its leadership. At a time when the Arab spring is producing unpredictable changes in regional regimes and alignments, Tehran's aggressive regional policy, growing asymmetric warfare capabilities, and developing nuclear and ballistic missile programs present a separate set of challenges of great strategic importance..........(Read on).............

Yemen’s Coming Crisis

Yemen’s Coming Crisis (MES Insights v2i2 March 2011)

by Adam C. Seitz

Following the successful ousting of Presidents Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, anti-government protests continue to challenge the rule of long-standing regimes throughout the Middle East and North Africa. The 32-year rule of Yemen’s President Ali Abdallah Saleh is no exception. Widespread corruption, growing economic and resource inequality, and internal fragmentation have pushed anti-government protesters into the streets demanding the immediate ouster of President Saleh, challenging the stability of a country already on the brink of becoming a failed state.

Even before Yemen was swept up by the wave of protests rolling through the region, the Saleh regime had been faced with a number of daunting challenges: a slew of economic and social issues, the Islamist al-Houthi rebellion in the north, a resilient secessionist movement in the south, and a resurgent al-Qaeda offshoot seeking to take advantage of Yemen’s domestic conflicts and demographics.

In the past, Saleh has been relatively effective in managing the issues his regime has faced through power-sharing arrangements brokered with various tribal leaders, Islamist groups and political factions. Recently, however, shifting alliances have put this system to the test.........(Read on).........