Limitations of the " Yemen Model " to Counterterrorism (MES Insights v5i5 September 2014)
by Adam C. Seitz
On 10 September 2014, U.S. President Barak Obama addressed the nation to lay out his administration’s strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant].” To this end President Obama proposed a counterterrorism strategy that relied on a “systematic campaign of airstrikes” and an “increase in support to forces fighting these terrorists on the ground.” Comparing his strategy for ISIL to counterterrorism campaigns in Yemen and Somalia President Obama stated that, “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”
President Obama’s use of Yemen and Somalia as models for a strategy against ISIL has once again reignited the debate on the overall effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism strategy in both cases. In the case of the “Yemen Model,” a strategy, which has relied upon a combination of airstrikes and support for local forces, has thus far fallen short of the ultimate objective of destroying al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its local affiliate Ansar al-Sharia (AAS). Indeed, most intelligence and think-tank estimates point to an increase in the number of attacks and the size of AQAP in recent years. This is not to say that U.S. counterterrorism strategy has been completely ineffective, but rather that U.S. efforts have been limited by realities on the ground, especially those contributing to a lack of reliable and effective local partners. Understanding how the political and security environment in Yemen have limited U.S. counterterrorism efforts against AQAP may be useful in managing expectations as the U.S. seeks to duplicate the successes of the “Yemen Model” in Iraq and Syria.............(Read on)..........
