Iran at a Crossroads

Iran at a Crossroads (MES Insights v1i1 January 2010)

by Amin Tarzi and Adam C. Seitz

The Islamic Republic of Iran is at a crossroad. 2009 closed with the Islamic Republic regime witnessing the most fundamental challenges to its rule over Iran. As a result both the regime in power and the country of Iran begin the year 2010 with more uncertainty than at any other time in the thirty years since the triumph of the Islamic revolution. The uncertainty in Iran not only translates into insecurity for the regime, but also for the region and beyond, as the regime flexes its muscles to demonstrate relevance and authority. This presents a challenging security environment. Chief among the growing security challenges are Tehran’s continued defiance in negotiations over its nuclear program, and the weakening of the chains of commands which hitherto had kept Tehran from stepping beyond certain red lines in projecting its influence beyond its borders. Which way is Iran heading?........(Read on)............