Planning for the Gray Zone: The Yemen Quagmire

Planning for the Gray Zone: The Yemen Quagmire (MES Insights v9i4 August 2018)

by Adam C Seitz

The conflict in Yemen is in its fourth year, and by many assessments warring factions appear to be locked in a stalemate. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and their coalition partners are engaged in a campaign on the Red Sea coast to break the stalemate, shift the balance of forces in their favor, and secure maritime traffic. Secessionist factions, government-allied forces, and various local militias are competing to consolidate gains in the south and east of the county. The US and its allies have continued to pursue a counterterrorism campaign to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) in Yemen. The complexity of Yemen’s multifaceted conflict is emblematic of the international security environment and the types of intersecting conflicts that policymakers and military planners face when advancing US national security interests and meeting the challenges posed by revisionist actors in the gray zone. ............(Read on)..............

The Tribal-Military-Commercial Complex and the Challenges to Security Sector Reform in Yemen

"The Tribal-Military-Commercial Complex and the Challenges to Security Sector Reform in Yemen" in Addressing Security Sector Reform in Yemen (2017)

by Adam C. Seitz

Chapter in a report entitled Addressing Security Sector Reform in Yemen Challenges and Opportunities for Intervention During and Post-Conflict. The report was edited by Marie-Christine Heinze and published by the Center for Applied Research in Partnership with the Orient (CARPO) in cooperation with the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung (KAS) on 20 December 2017.

This report is the result of a conference with the same name, which was jointly organized by CARPO and the Regional Office Gulf States of the KAS at the Dead Sea in April 2017. The papers by prolific experts on Yemen included in this publication discuss the changes, obstacles and limits for successful security sector reform in Yemen during and after the conflict and offer respective recommendations for national and international policy-makers in the field.

Houthi Expansionism, Internal War, Geopolitics, and the Yemen Quagmire

Houthi Expansionism, Internal War, Geopolitics, and the Yemen Quagmire (MES Insights v8i3 June 2017)

by Adam C. Seitz

As Yemen's internal war continues to drag on with no end in sight, there is increased risk of miscalculations that may lead to further escalation and internationalization of the conflict. Increased regional and international geopolitical competition, continued efforts to combat the threat of international terrorism and Islamic extremism emanating from the region, and maritime security concerns that threaten the global economy and freedom of navigation have only increased Yemen's strategic importance to the national security agendas of regional and international actors alike. 1 Such considerations have not been lost on Yemen's domestic incumbent and insurgent elites, contributing, in part, to political and military strategies that seek to manage but not entirely eliminate internal security threats that pose challenges to the national security interests of regional and international actors. As such, Houthi expansionism and the ongoing internal war may be better understood in the context of the development of a domestic elite strategic culture that has contributed to perpetual insecurity and internal war in Yemen. Strategic culture can be described as traditional practices and habits of thought by which military force is organized and employed by a society in the service of its political goals. When viewed through the lens of strategic culture, Houthi expansionism, and internal war in Yemen generally, should not be viewed as an aberration that seeks to change the status quo. Rather, it should be considered a continuation of established political norms and military-decision making institutionalized under the regime of Ali Abdullah Saleh, which seeks to balance a host of internal and external actors and potential threats within an environment dominated by elite competition and internal factionalization, in the absence of effective state institutions and a clear monopoly on the use of violence by the state. Such a governing strategy has contributed to the proliferation of militias and other irregular and non-state forces, military factionalization, and increasingly the formation of civil-military relations akin to warlordism, in which military and/or tribal elites exercise civil power at a local or regional level through their influence and control of militias. 2 Within this domestic environment, the military has played a central role in linking a number of disparate groups to the regime, while at the same time factionalization has allowed for effective divide and rule tactics to shield the regime from reprisal. Furthermore, the dependence of the Yemeni economy on a combination of oil revenues, remittances, and, increasingly, foreign aid has left the Yemeni government vulnerable to external market forces and shocks associated with geopolitical competition. Within this geopolitical setting, internal war and perpetual insecurity threatening regional and international interests have supported a growing war economy and helped to prop up the armed forces as a central player in patronage politics and the economy writ large through its role in the tribal-military-commercial complex and the Yemen Economic Corporation (YECO)—formerly the Military Economic Corporation or MECO—, which has its hands in nearly all facets of the Yemeni economy and serves as a conduit for foreign aid. 3............(Read on)..............

Patronage Politics in Transition: Political and Economic Interests of the Yemeni Armed Forces

"Patronage Politics in Transition: Political and Economic Interests of the Yemeni Armed Forces" in Businessmen in Arms: How the Military and Other Armed Groups Profit in the MENA Region (Rowman & Littlefield, 2016)

by Adam C. Seitz

Chapter in edited volume Businessmen in Arms: How the Military and Other Armed Groups Profit in the MENA Region (Rowman & Littlefield 2016) edited by Elke Grawert and Zeinab Abul-Magd.

The Arab Uprisings have brought renewed attention to the role of the military in the MENA region, where they are either the backbone of regime power or a crucial part of patronage networks in political systems. This collection of essays from international experts examines the economic interests of armed actors ranging from military businesses in Egypt, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Jordan, Sudan, and Yemen to retired military officers’ economic endeavors and the web of funding of non-state armed groups in Syria and Libya. Due to the combined power of business and arms, the military often manages to incorporate or quell competing groups and thus, to revert achievements of revolutionary movements.

Book and ebook available for purchase at:
https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442254558/Businessmen-in-Arms-How-the-Military-and-Other-Armed-Groups-Profit-in-the-MENA-Region#
https://www.amazon.com/Businessmen-Arms-Military-Groups-Profit/dp/1442254556

REVIEWS

The first truly comparative analysis of the political economy of armed forces in the MENA, this fine collection reveals militarization’s widespread, profound and devastating consequences for the region’s development.
— Robert Springborg, professor (ret.) of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School


Armed forces in the Middle East and North Africa have become industrial, agricultural and commercial enterprises as much as they are instruments of political coercion and national defense, yet we know very little about the dynamics and mechanics of military-run businesses across the region. This collection of conceptually informed, up-to-date surveys raises the bar for scholarship on the economics of military governance from Libya to Pakistan, Turkey to Yemen. Recognized experts who have undertaken path-breaking fieldwork offer factual information and interpretive insights that can be found nowhere else.
— Fred H. Lawson, author of Global Security Watch Syria

Avoiding Yemen's Abyss

Avoiding Yemen's Abyss (MES Insights v6i1 February 2015)

by Adam C. Seitz

The January 22, 2015 resignation of the government of Yemeni President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi and the ensuing chaos have once again sparked both fears of the collapse of the Republic of Yemen as we know it and concerns about the effectiveness of international counterterrorism efforts in Yemen. The same combination of elite competition, military factionalization, and ever-shifting alliances that contributed to Yemen’s current political crisis and insecurity continue to provide al-Qaeda with a foothold in Yemen. Any counterterrorism strategy by the U.S. and its international partners must take such factors into consideration, or risk further internationalizing the Yemeni crisis and plunging deeper into Yemen’s counterterrorism abyss.............(Read on)..............

Houthi Advances in Yemen Pose Security Dilemma for the U.S.

Houthi Advances in Yemen Pose Security Dilemma for the U.S. (MES Insights v5i6 November 2014)

by Adam C. Seitz

In July 2014, the northern Yemeni city of Amran fell to insurgents led by Abdul-Maik al-Houthi. Amran had served as the capital for the elders of the influential Hashid tribal confederation since the 1962 Republican Revolution. Less than two months after the capture of Amran, Houthi militias swept into Sanaa, seizing a number of government buildings and military installations, setting up checkpoints throughout the Yemeni capital, and ultimately forcing the Yemeni government led by President Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi to sign the “Peace and Partnership” agreement on September 21, 2014. This in effect created a new political order in Yemen. In the two months following the agreement, the Houthis have captured a number of strategically important cities, including the port city of Hudaydah, and have advanced on a number of others controlled by al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its local affiliate Ansar alSharia (AAS).

Since 2002, U.S. efforts to disrupt, dismantle and ultimately destroy al-Qaeda and its affiliates in Yemen have relied upon a combination of partnership with the Yemeni military that includes capacity building of Yemeni security forces and U.S. airstrikes. Although the Houthis and the U.S. share a common enemy in AQAP and AAS, this does not equate to a situation in which the enemy of my enemy is my friend. On the contrary, the military and political gains made by the Houthis have created a new set of challenges for counterterrorism efforts in Yemen by the United States and its allies.......(Read on).............

Limitations of the " Yemen Model " to Counterterrorism

Limitations of the " Yemen Model " to Counterterrorism (MES Insights v5i5 September 2014)

by Adam C. Seitz

On 10 September 2014, U.S. President Barak Obama addressed the nation to lay out his administration’s strategy to “degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL [Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant].” To this end President Obama proposed a counterterrorism strategy that relied on a “systematic campaign of airstrikes” and an “increase in support to forces fighting these terrorists on the ground.” Comparing his strategy for ISIL to counterterrorism campaigns in Yemen and Somalia President Obama stated that, “This strategy of taking out terrorists who threaten us, while supporting partners on the front lines, is one that we have successfully pursued in Yemen and Somalia for years.”

President Obama’s use of Yemen and Somalia as models for a strategy against ISIL has once again reignited the debate on the overall effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism strategy in both cases. In the case of the “Yemen Model,” a strategy, which has relied upon a combination of airstrikes and support for local forces, has thus far fallen short of the ultimate objective of destroying al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and its local affiliate Ansar al-Sharia (AAS). Indeed, most intelligence and think-tank estimates point to an increase in the number of attacks and the size of AQAP in recent years. This is not to say that U.S. counterterrorism strategy has been completely ineffective, but rather that U.S. efforts have been limited by realities on the ground, especially those contributing to a lack of reliable and effective local partners. Understanding how the political and security environment in Yemen have limited U.S. counterterrorism efforts against AQAP may be useful in managing expectations as the U.S. seeks to duplicate the successes of the “Yemen Model” in Iraq and Syria.............(Read on)..........

Ties That Bind and Divide: The ‘Arab Spring’ and Yemeni Civil-Military Relations

"Ties That Bind and Divide: The ‘Arab Spring’ and Yemeni Civil-Military Relations" in Why Yemen Matters: A Society in Transition (Saqi Books 2014)

by Adam C. Seitz

Chapter in edited volume Why Yemen Matters: A Society in Transition (Saqi Books, 2014) edited by Helen Lackner.

In November 2011, an agreement brokered by the GCC brought an end to Yemen’s tumultuous uprising. The National Dialogue Conference has opened a window of opportunity for change, bringing Yemen’s main political forces together with groups that were politically marginalized. Yet, the risk of collapse is serious, and if Yemen is to remain a viable state, it must address numerous political, social and economic challenges.

In this invaluable volume, experts with extensive Yemen experience provide innovative analysis of the country’s major crises: centralized governance, the role of the military, ethnic conflict, separatism, Islamism, foreign intervention, water scarcity and economic development.

This is essential reading for academics, journalists, development workers, diplomats, politicians and students alike.

Read or download (PDF) chapter at:
https://marines.academia.edu/AdamCSeitz

Book and ebook available for purchase at:
http://www.saqibooks.co.uk/book/yemen-matters/
https://www.amazon.com/Why-Yemen-Matters-Society-Transition/dp/0863567770

REVIEWS

‘A rich, diverse and rewarding account of the multiple security dilemmas now facing Yemen’ Journal of Middle Eastern Studies 

‘Timely and important … An excellent record … [the contributors’] interviews with Yemenis make a welcome addition to the events, facts and figures that form the basis of the papers.’ Bulletin of the British Foundation for the Study of Arabia

‘An up to date and wide-ranging guide to what is arguably the Arab world’s least known and most misunderstood state … brings together an impressive range of experts on the country’ Michael Willis, Director of the Middle East Centre, Oxford University

‘Thoughtful and well-researched, Why Yemen Matters unearths a wealth of information about contemporary Yemeni society.’ Baghat Korany, Professor of International Relations, American University in Cairo

‘Essential reading … The authors shed light on the context of the Yemeni uprising in a way that helps us understand the outlines of Yemen’s future.’ Charles Schmitz, President of the American Institute of Yemeni Studies

‘A remarkable book in terms of its comprehensiveness, accessibility and ethical approach … a must-read for those wanting to go beyond the headlines' Jordan Times 

Building Yemen's Maritime Security Capacity

Building Yemen's Maritime Security Capacity (MES Insights v5i2 April 2014)

by Adam C Seitz

Over the past decade smuggling across the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb has risen steadily. The illegal trafficking of weapons, drugs, and people continues to fuel sectarian and political violence, threatening Yemen's fragile political transition. At the same time, with a coastline stretching almost 2,000 km along some of the world most strategic waterways, Yemen's continued internal instability and insecurity perpetuates international concerns that Yemen may become a regional hub for transnational smuggling, piracy, and terrorism, posing a significant threat to the free flow of international trade and international security. As such, building the capacity of Yemen's maritime security forces should be a top priority, not only for the Yemeni government but for the international community as a whole.....(Read on).....

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2014

"Yemen" in the American Foreign Policy Councils World Almanac of Islamism 2014 (Rowman & Littlefield)

by Adam C. Seitz

The American Foreign Policy Council’s World Almanac of Islamism is a comprehensive resource designed to track the rise or decline of radical Islam on a national, regional and global level. This database focuses on the nature of the contemporary Islamist threat around the world, and on the current activities of radical Islamist movements worldwide.

From Western Europe to Asia, from the Middle East to the Horn of Africa, societies are finding themselves under growing assault from radical Islamist forces. In some countries, such as Spain and France, the challenge posed by radical Islam is still limited in scope and embryonic in nature. But in others, including Somalia and Pakistan, it poses a mortal danger to the future of the existing state. The World Almanac of Islamism is the first comprehensive reference work to detail the global reach of Islamism across six continents. Each country study, written by leading subject-matter experts, examines the full scope of the Islamist phenomenon, from the activities of radical Islamist groups to the role of Islamist actors and ideas in society to the response—or complicity—of the local government. An additional series of “movement” studies explores the global reach, ideology, and capabilities of the world’s most powerful transnational Islamist movements. Finally, Almanac includes regional summaries and a global overview designed to provide context and strategic insights into current and emerging trends relating to Islamism the world over. 

Features of the new edition include: 

- Three new country studies (Nigeria, Brazil, Tanzania) 

- Two new movement studies (the Gulen movement and Boko Haram) 

- Updates to all original chapters 

- Consolidation of trends/analyses into one “Global Overview” 

Online resource available at: http://almanac.afpc.org/

Book and ebook available for purchase at:

https://rowman.com/ISBN/9781442231436/The-World-Almanac-of-Islamism-2014#

https://www.amazon.com/World-Almanac-Islamism-2014/dp/1442231432/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1530114735&sr=1-1